Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9173ef6cd37f2dbf73b91c123c47d94b39f3ec2696e13f0bb1eede47c813a27e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 60c | 553.09$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.27 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 469.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 65c | 326.72$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.83 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 74c | 296.3$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 274$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 205.54$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de9…999cbacked No | 6c | 194$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 70c | 179.01$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 163.19$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…20febacked Yes | 32c | 158.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.29 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 37c | 157.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 150.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 143.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 138.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 126.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 41c | 120.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 45c | 112.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 24c | 111.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 15c | 108.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 44c | 102.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 79c | 101.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 45c | 96.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 33c | 94.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 86.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 61c | 82.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 60c | 81.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 60c | 80.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 79.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 67.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 61.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 69c | 60.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 30c | 54.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 37c | 53.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 39c | 52.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed No | 30c | 50.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 63c | 44.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 25c | 42.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 42.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked Yes | 37c | 42.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…2db1backed Yes | 26c | 41.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 63c | 39.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 57c | 38.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 62c | 37.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 71c | 35.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 38c | 33.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 27.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 38c | 27.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 74c | 24.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 74c | 23.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52a…58b6backed No | 72c | 21.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 73c | 20.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 58c | 20.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 50c | 20.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 16.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb712…71ffbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.