Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x917c310726b8f10d01f69b576cd09f85aa86b98d067fe2d799ba192f6ea77450
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 1c | 12,596$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 1,429$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 2c | 1,306$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…3bedbacked Yes | 2c | 1,287$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 1,168$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.84 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 3c | 941.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…ad54backed Yes | 4c | 518.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 3c | 412.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 380.12$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.58 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed Yes | 5c | 350.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7db…b4a6backed Yes | 13c | 305.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 65c | 292.66$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.15 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 270.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Yes | 4c | 227.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…6863backed Yes | 21c | 219.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 191.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed Yes | 11c | 180.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked Yes | 45c | 171.41$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 149.15$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…3a7ebacked Yes | 10c | 135.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 131.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 23c | 124.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 116.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 110.5$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd9…958cbacked Yes | 10c | 110.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes | 44c | 99.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 99.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 31c | 96.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…4768backed Yes | 28c | 92.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 53c | 88.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 33c | 86.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 63.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 23c | 61.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x902c…db6cbacked Yes | 34c | 59.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked Yes | 34c | 57.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 41c | 57.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 54.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 47c | 43.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e2…1a48backed Yes | 46c | 41.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…3b1abacked No | 59c | 39.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…981cbacked Yes | 47c | 38.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 55c | 38.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 61c | 37.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…e65abacked Yes | 69c | 37.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 50c | 37.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f9…f99abacked No | 79c | 37.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 78cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb92d…1b33backed Yes | 29c | 35.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…e756backed Yes | 44c | 34.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 45c | 31.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…792abacked No | 61c | 31.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 54c | 30.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 76c | 29.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 46c | 29.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 49c | 28.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed No | 53c | 26.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 65c | 26.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 67c | 23.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 72c | 22.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed No | 76c | 21.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87e…3389backed No | 75c | 18.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed No | 59c | 17.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…59b0backed No | 76c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 78c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.