Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9056bd6d90fa1d8e3b56cc6139b858db4f09a3053521bdc5d81e62f81f44bf30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 12c | 904.66$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.87 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 21c | 583.46$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 24c | 516.24$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.81 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 15c | 445.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 23c | 406.22$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 325.13$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 309.94$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 263.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 215.1$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 196.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 78c | 173.07$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 154.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 19c | 142.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 141.71$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 19c | 135.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 79c | 128.62$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 15c | 125.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 11c | 124.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 120.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 16c | 115.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 28c | 112.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…dc1ebacked Yes | 16c | 110.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 20c | 98.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 20c | 97.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 23c | 89.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 21c | 89.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 33c | 83.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 76.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 21c | 74.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 15c | 68.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 21c | 67.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 24c | 66.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8073…25febacked Yes | 18c | 62.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 70c | 59.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…3b1abacked Yes | 18c | 57.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 77c | 53.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 30c | 52.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 21c | 51.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 29c | 49.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7457…4fc4backed Yes | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 46.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x560e…543bbacked Yes | 23c | 43.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 40.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 74c | 40.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 29c | 39.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…2384backed Yes | 32c | 35.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 70c | 34.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 33.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 70c | 32.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed No | 68c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 29.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 70c | 27.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 27.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3410…f999backed No | 71c | 26.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 70c | 25.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 75c | 25.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 25.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 20.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d364backed No | 79c | 15.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 77c | 13.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.