Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca63034141bd9f4eafeaf8656911e8a4161bbe4bf92272e5a7420523d38586ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 1,005$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…94cbbacked Yes | 25c | 692.12$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…1ab4backed No | 75c | 682.29$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.64 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 9c | 518.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 26c | 431.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.32 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed No | 74c | 389.49$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.31 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 367.06$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 18c | 305.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 289.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 20c | 286.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 206.56$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 167.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…72d5backed No | 61c | 166.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 12c | 163.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 74c | 148.87$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 141.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…eb26backed No | 69c | 131.37$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 26c | 123.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 46c | 111.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 19c | 105.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 100.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fe…4097backed No | 79c | 97.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 76.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed No | 79c | 75.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 25c | 74.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 21c | 64.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 23c | 59.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 28c | 59.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 19c | 59.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 26c | 54.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 33c | 49.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 72c | 43.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd513…e249backed Yes | 39c | 36.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…0400backed Yes | 35c | 31.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 64c | 31.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed No | 56c | 25.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…b128backed Yes | 44c | 23.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 76c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.