Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x046a681738f40814582930f7efd0daafeb50412c152318401c58adf7b0054910
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 12c | 513.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.28 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 13c | 462.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.47 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 35c | 426.89$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.23 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 426.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.81 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 41c | 378.13$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.17 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 355.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 310$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 296.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 15c | 279$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.9 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 270.06$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 48c | 233.63$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 10c | 226.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.6 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 24c | 216.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 27c | 211.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.52 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 66c | 198.03$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 185.46$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 16c | 176.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.57 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 26c | 173.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 67c | 165.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 157.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked No | 65c | 145.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 15c | 144.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 38c | 131.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 19c | 119.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 12c | 118.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 40c | 112.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 39c | 105.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 19c | 97.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 24c | 96.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…9fc2backed Yes | 60c | 96.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 90.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 42c | 87.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 56c | 86.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…4d6dbacked No | 51c | 74.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 49c | 74.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 69c | 68.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 26c | 66.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 69c | 59.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 30c | 58.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 54c | 57.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 54.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…30d9backed Yes | 62c | 53.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 38c | 51.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 45c | 50.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 35c | 49.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 67c | 49.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 48.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 31c | 48.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 59c | 47.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 48c | 45.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 41.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 71c | 40.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 78c | 38.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed Yes | 38c | 36.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 80c | 34.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 60c | 33.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 61c | 33.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…0f61backed No | 61c | 32.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 60c | 32.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1b…eb68backed Yes | 65c | 31.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d364backed No | 72c | 30.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 66c | 27.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 65c | 26.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 65c | 25.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 64c | 25.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f16…2d56backed Yes | 56c | 23.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 80c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed Yes | 80c | 18.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…5962backed No | 64c | 18.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 75c | 17.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 69c | 14.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e92…0b78backed No | 80c | 14.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 75c | 13.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.