Tennis · resolved market
ITF The Hague: Federica Urgesi vs Arantxa Rus
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91bc5099a16e24c47219cd99ad623ce361957864a79ce88b8b2e4c90cbeda993
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arantxa Rusof Federica Urgesi, Arantxa Rus
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Federica Urgesi | 41c | 5,229$2,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,152.02 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Arantxa Rus | 58c | 3,138$1,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.41 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arantxa Rus | 56c | 1,997$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.81 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…9f92backed Arantxa Rus | 44c | 800$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448 | 253 | 49%124 W · 129 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Arantxa Rus | 52c | 432.32$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.51 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Federica Urgesi | 48c | 373.59$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.32 | 323 | 33.7%109 W · 214 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Federica Urgesi | 41c | 367.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.02 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Federica Urgesi | 14c | 349.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…936bbacked Arantxa Rus | 33c | 269.28$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.14 | 141 | 33.3%47 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Federica Urgesi | 8c | 230.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Arantxa Rus | 43c | 170.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.16 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Federica Urgesi | 77c | 165.06$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.1 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arantxa Rus | 54c | 132.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Federica Urgesi | 40c | 120.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Federica Urgesi | 28c | 101$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Federica Urgesi | 62c | 98.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Federica Urgesi | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arantxa Rus | 23c | 64.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Federica Urgesi | 77c | 64.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 363 | 78.2%284 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Federica Urgesi | 55c | 59.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Arantxa Rus | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Federica Urgesi | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 449 | 52.8%237 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Arantxa Rus | 57c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…8ebebacked Federica Urgesi | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Arantxa Rus | 50c | 40.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Federica Urgesi | 54c | 35.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Arantxa Rus | 46c | 34.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1,421 | 55%782 W · 639 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Arantxa Rus | 43c | 33.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 588 | 57.7%339 W · 249 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Federica Urgesi | 64c | 28.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…2581backed Arantxa Rus | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 72 | 75%54 W · 18 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Federica Urgesi | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…3be3backed Arantxa Rus | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.