MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91d4c6b34271cbb1eaf1e9b40c55f11410c6a8611122506b4c30e83b7ca1996d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 43c | 40,881$17,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,432.26 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 23,761$13,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,612.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 57c | 6,000$3,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,420 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 57c | 4,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 56c | 2,140$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.83 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 2,055$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.62 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 1,592$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.92 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Over | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 40c | 1,405$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.8 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 56c | 1,396$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.79 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 58c | 1,341$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 43c | 593.3$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.4 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 41c | 528$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.52 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 58c | 500.65$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.38 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…bf14backed Under | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 57c | 459.99$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.48 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 60c | 420$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 40c | 237$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.2 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 58c | 210.28$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.06 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 51c | 205$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 202$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 58c | 184$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 57c | 148.12$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 45c | 114$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 35c | 113.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Over | 58c | 87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 32c | 62.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 56.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 47c | 49.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 60c | 49.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Over | 59c | 47.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 33c | 41.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 67c | 39.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Over | 57c | 37.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Over | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd3…1e24backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -6.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Over | 60c | 24.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.