MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e03413b9353356dff542d71f96fb8d48dc43c85792fb8e67cc23fd5095201bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 27,128$16,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,277.01 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 15,172$6,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,095.78 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 14,517$9,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,085.98 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 10,000$4,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,001.15 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…80c3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 7,133$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.69 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 6,250$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 3,319$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,031.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 2,565$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 2,527$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78cc…a081backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 2,156$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 1,206$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 1,111$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.49 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 1,098$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.91 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 986.59$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.09 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 865$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.15 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 842.85$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.78 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 787.44$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.59 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 766.04$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.29 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 690$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 621$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.39 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 492.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.43 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 475.96$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.02 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Milwaukee Brewers | 74c | 430.84$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.84 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 420$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 401.96$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 354.26$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.1 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 18c | 310.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 286$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.6 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…10e8backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 273.19$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 269.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 250.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 240$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 206.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 137.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 134.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 122.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 107.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 105$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 96.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.02 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 82.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 54.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 52.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 51.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 49.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 44.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 35.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 31.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…bc14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 24.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…3637backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 22.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 22.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 20.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.