MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb406c8fa7f77fe5e0b3fe2a934f3f831a752afe1b5343d7dba71f659ba4b633d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 51c | 12,500$6,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,375 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 49c | 9,445$4,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,816.7 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595d…9ad0backed Over | 49c | 8,163$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 7,593$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,752.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 53c | 6,897$3,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,241.42 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 4,463$2,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,097.61 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 49c | 1,700$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Under | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.65 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 1,604$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.75 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 52c | 1,532$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.67 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 1,305$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.37 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 51c | 1,156$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.57 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 49c | 1,111$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.61 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.2 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 51c | 999.99$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.03 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Under | 48c | 815$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.8 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 787.94$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 637.73$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.73 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 51c | 603.53$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.73 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 369.7$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.45 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 52c | 308.42$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.38 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 51c | 299.95$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.98 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 49c | 299$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.51 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 250$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 207.45$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 49c | 179.93$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 47c | 141$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 48c | 139.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 50c | 131.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 113.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 52c | 104.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 52c | 97.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…1f15backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 90.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 43c | 89.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 60c | 84.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed Over | 49c | 80.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 53c | 76.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 63.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 49c | 58.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 50c | 53.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 45.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 50c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 50c | 40.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 52c | 30.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd3…1e24backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -6.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Under | 51c | 23.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.