Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9200baba5a971427e2e121237a9301450031bd36d68e3855749401856f407bbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 41c | 406.48$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.33 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 43c | 365.69$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.45 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 24c | 298.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 45c | 274.19$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 63c | 271.86$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.49 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 52c | 269.49$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.49 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…3c91backed No | 63c | 207.55$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.36 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…a8f4backed No | 66c | 199.96$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.28 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 60c | 197.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 53c | 182.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.43 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 153$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 19c | 151.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 52c | 145.54$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 40c | 143.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 26c | 116.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 115.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 112.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 41c | 109.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 19c | 86.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 65c | 85.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 83.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 82.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 48c | 82.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 81.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 46c | 81.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 46c | 78.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 24c | 72.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 33c | 72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 69.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 25c | 67.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 65.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 42c | 55.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 47.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 38c | 45.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 48c | 42.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 41c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 35.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53b…168dbacked Yes | 57c | 31.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 30.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 37c | 28.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…a047backed Yes | 64c | 25.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…1096backed No | 61c | 25.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 73c | 24.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 23.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 55c | 23.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 68c | 22.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 60c | 21.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 21.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 19.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…dd85backed No | 63c | 17.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.