Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf4258fa35abe7828a2cdd5ce0d68e06961558885bf63e5d2fb09469cdc28fff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 387.94$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 45c | 333.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 47c | 274.03$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 19c | 254.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed Yes | 9c | 227.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 179.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 153$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 148.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 148.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 66c | 130.7$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 128.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 123.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…a8f4backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 54c | 99.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 98.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 79.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 20c | 65.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 49c | 64.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 60.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 39c | 58.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 57.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 55.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 52.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 55c | 51.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 50.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 33c | 49.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 34c | 49.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 51c | 47.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 43.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 51c | 38.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 36.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23b…4225backed No | 72c | 35.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 35.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 35.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc4…3536backed Yes | 33c | 34.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 34.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 33.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 54c | 33.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 50c | 32.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 30.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 25.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 25.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 24.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 49c | 24.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 23.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 23.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 51c | 23.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 59c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 20.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 58c | 19.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 68c | 15.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.