Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $106 end of November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x921c60cf94efc124db9f2ced45a9db864408934a6f545e19cd167c9fd95678ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 21c | 509$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 26c | 451.22$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.32 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 77c | 227.87$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 62c | 216.76$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.97 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 45c | 205.9$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadc6…d5e0backed No | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 64c | 113.48$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 76c | 106.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ee…421bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…d7b2backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $106 end of November?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of November?Yes won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $102 end of November?Yes won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $104 end of November?Yes won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $108 end of November?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $110 end of November?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $112 end of November?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $114 end of November?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $116 end of November?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $118 end of November?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $120 end of November?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $122 end of November?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $124 end of November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.