Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92217b62a8428db9421e77884b1440bb5a3c667b1749a6029bf2af4a1da192ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 54c | 487.61$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.26 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 71c | 340.77$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.82 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 284.59$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 76c | 255.68$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 73c | 244.17$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 211.04$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.74 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 205.39$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.83 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 8c | 197.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 32c | 194.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.98 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 44c | 193.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.41 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 181.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.75 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 7c | 161.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 123.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 115.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed No | 20c | 113.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 101.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 99.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 75c | 97.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 48c | 96.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 34c | 93.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 59c | 81.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 21c | 81.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 19c | 73.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 37c | 67.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 50c | 62.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 60.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 58.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 69c | 58.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 73c | 54.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…558dbacked Yes | 75c | 51.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 29c | 49.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 40c | 47.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 30c | 46.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed05…9368backed No | 25c | 46.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 59c | 40.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 30c | 39.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 50c | 38.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 37c | 36.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 39c | 33.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5d…4143backed No | 48c | 32.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 37c | 32.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb0…c1d7backed Yes | 61c | 31.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 70c | 29.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 37c | 29.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 37c | 28.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c5…d5d3backed Yes | 79c | 27.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 42c | 26.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…8039backed Yes | 55c | 26.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 65c | 25.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 67c | 24.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…9d2ebacked No | 49c | 23.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 59c | 22.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 69c | 22.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 60c | 22.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 20.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 19.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 71c | 17.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 66c | 15.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 71°F or below on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.