TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 71°F or below on April 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,897
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,803

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,897 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83a3…4d2bbacked No76c972.87$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.578151.9%42 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca71…610bbacked No64c842.48$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.110865.7%71 W · 37 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+33.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x713b…c916backed Yes28c611.56$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.531931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c559.63$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.3317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x928a…0e27backed Yes44c404.4$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.359054.4%49 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes37c397$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2763323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab0…6364backed No56c358.99$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.964938.8%19 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+91.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No76c350.31$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.6731341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No58c344.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.822,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed Yes20c333.19$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5412226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes18c297.88$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.322,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes46c289.67$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.549270.7%65 W · 27 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3458…b5a7backed No78c251.01$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.372254.5%12 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes20c249.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.92,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7e…e8e6backed Yes13c239.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.05333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-49.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9547…1bf5backed Yes41c228.47$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.123441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes43c214.38$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.292,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes41c210.82$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.311,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes48c205.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5213533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes6c204.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.091,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes42c201.64$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.239535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ea…6523backed No52c195.24$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.414060%24 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+43.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes23c193.23$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9151321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef6a…18e8backed No59c187.25$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.777360.3%44 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes22c185.59$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4431442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes6c177.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.35,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e34…9434backed No59c177.03$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfe6…3b6fbacked Yes7c169.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No57c155.52$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9449038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked No63c151.45$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3733243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…7926backed Yes25c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.542315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4789…b286backed Yes36c144.08$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.297524%18 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69a4…f990backed Yes22c132$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.043923.1%9 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No75c130.66$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.134,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9faf…4138backed Yes37c129.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes41c121.63$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.269,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No61c119.54$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.61,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3327732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…c27bbacked Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes34c97.47$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2634250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2c…af6cbacked No59c97.33$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.781952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes36c94.09$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0859125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes32c92.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8635133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bdc…a0babacked No53c89.19$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.518068.8%55 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9003…4c59backed Yes45c86.05$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.418531.8%27 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65df…6144backed Yes54c85.92$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.46137.7%23 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes44c84.8$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3116324.5%40 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes59c81.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0321142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa233…dfe8backed Yes47c77.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7913514.8%20 W · 115 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes41c73.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0237942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac4…57bfbacked Yes32c72.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.31643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed No54c72.27$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9566144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No56c71.77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3245162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked No77c69.33$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8616651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes37c69.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.42623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d6…5401backed Yes18c68.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.341136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+44.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7462…6c41backed Yes43c68.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.196241.9%26 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed Yes35c68.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6522550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No57c67.86$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1819753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c67.61$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No66c65.88$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4272952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No65c65.13$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9327771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…4d70backed No59c64.1$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.138466.7%56 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f93…480bbacked Yes44c59.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266040%24 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes25c59.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8617138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4066…2407backed No50c58.78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3913243.9%58 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No58c57.24$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0425175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes43c56.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0713322.6%30 W · 103 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc893…c015backed Yes37c54.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.023138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No58c53.62$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.783,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6c…1e52backed Yes37c52.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b5d…adc4backed Yes43c51.74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.16666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes50c51.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5156721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2672466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77e6…0ae1backed No51c49.86$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.241957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No55c49.67$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3524370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes51c48.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.518650.5%94 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes53c47.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2541733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No57c47.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2931262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No62c47.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0540777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes50c47.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7611223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes33c46.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4534934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed Yes41c46.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8211663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fab…a46ebacked Yes52c44.32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes27c43.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.732830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes43c42.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.687126.8%19 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed No56c42.77$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8755538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes47c40.58$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9320750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No46c38.88$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9352155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes30c38.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.732,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No53c38.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1723547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765d…8189backed Yes40c38.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.412825%7 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-39%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x715e…ee36backed Yes43c36.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.532832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6e…b651backed No54c35.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.544667.4%31 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed No80c34.75$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9518845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…7401backed No52c34.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.482055%11 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes44c33.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8340242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51f6…9f18backed No64c33.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.114659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed Yes65c33.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.69580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick75cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c54…aa45backed No62c32.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.283966.7%26 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.