Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 71°F or below on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ec9bfd2c025b736011b38ec8911307477ddd032fadf4610ca92cd37d8669340
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked No | 76c | 972.87$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.57 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 64c | 842.48$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.1 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…c916backed Yes | 28c | 611.56$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.53 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 559.63$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed Yes | 44c | 404.4$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.35 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 37c | 397$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.27 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…6364backed No | 56c | 358.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.96 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 76c | 350.31$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 58c | 344.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.82 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 20c | 333.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 297.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 46c | 289.67$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.54 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed No | 78c | 251.01$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 249.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…e8e6backed Yes | 13c | 239.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed Yes | 41c | 228.47$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 43c | 214.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 41c | 210.82$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 48c | 205.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 6c | 204.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 42c | 201.64$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed No | 52c | 195.24$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 23c | 193.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 59c | 187.25$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 22c | 185.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 177.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed No | 59c | 177.03$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…3b6fbacked Yes | 7c | 169.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 57c | 155.52$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 63c | 151.45$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 36c | 144.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…f990backed Yes | 22c | 132$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 130.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9faf…4138backed Yes | 37c | 129.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 41c | 121.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 61c | 119.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…c27bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 34c | 97.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2c…af6cbacked No | 59c | 97.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 94.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 32c | 92.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 53c | 89.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 45c | 86.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 54c | 85.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 44c | 84.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 59c | 81.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 47c | 77.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 41c | 73.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…57bfbacked Yes | 32c | 72.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 54c | 72.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 56c | 71.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 77c | 69.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa5…92aebacked Yes | 37c | 69.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…5401backed Yes | 18c | 68.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed Yes | 43c | 68.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 35c | 68.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 57c | 67.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 67.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 66c | 65.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 65c | 65.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 59c | 64.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked Yes | 44c | 59.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 25c | 59.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 50c | 58.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 58c | 57.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 43c | 56.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…c015backed Yes | 37c | 54.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 58c | 53.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6c…1e52backed Yes | 37c | 52.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Yes | 43c | 51.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 50c | 51.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed No | 51c | 49.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 55c | 49.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 51c | 48.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 53c | 47.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 57c | 47.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 62c | 47.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 50c | 47.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 33c | 46.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 41c | 46.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fab…a46ebacked Yes | 52c | 44.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 27c | 43.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 43c | 42.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 56c | 42.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 47c | 40.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 46c | 38.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 30c | 38.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 53c | 38.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…8189backed Yes | 40c | 38.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…ee36backed Yes | 43c | 36.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 54c | 35.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 80c | 34.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…7401backed No | 52c | 34.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 44c | 33.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 64c | 33.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c5…d5d3backed Yes | 65c | 33.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…aa45backed No | 62c | 32.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 71°F or below on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.