Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9226fc3632e21af190db99b0741bb5f99f38210797f403e43fa59f5837867baf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 2c | 714.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 6c | 336.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 17c | 320.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…91dbbacked Yes | 21c | 246.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 198.1$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 6c | 165.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 8c | 164.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 12c | 143.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 30c | 135.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 10c | 133.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 125.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 19c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 94.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 42c | 83.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 60c | 82.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd33…21d1backed Yes | 19c | 66.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 42c | 59.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…bd51backed No | 75c | 55.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 53.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 22c | 50.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 64c | 47.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 41c | 45.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 32c | 42.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 46c | 37.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 70c | 36.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 35.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 34.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 26.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 39c | 26.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 58c | 18.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…bf12backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.