Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3df2e3ba1f10733cbd58a56d448c2dc509ce34f7d1e3eae157fdf6506fa814df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 1c | 8,127$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 79c | 808.24$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.74 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 276.72$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 220.86$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 16c | 188.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 157.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 135.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 38c | 133$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 74c | 113.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 112.62$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 30c | 111.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…91dbbacked Yes | 27c | 110.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 20c | 104.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 92.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 67c | 86.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 23c | 76.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 26c | 75.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 27c | 73.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 72c | 71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 19c | 69.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 29c | 67.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…bf12backed Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 67c | 63.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 43c | 62.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 60.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 74c | 57.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 75c | 55.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1eb…66eebacked Yes | 28c | 53.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 69c | 51.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…0f8abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…3d74backed Yes | 37c | 48.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 73c | 47.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 64c | 46.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 57c | 44.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 45c | 42.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 60c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 35c | 36.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 75c | 34.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 34.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…1e2bbacked Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e15bbacked Yes | 44c | 33.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 49c | 28.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 68c | 25.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 74c | 24.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 76c | 23.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 61c | 20.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 18.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 72c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.