Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f345f06f009ea003c2a5834e1b01c1f1e0988f63118089f9f8bcffc0e7d0b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 75c | 651.98$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.37 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 510.99$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 62c | 366.96$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.75 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 21c | 353.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 334.6$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.83 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 12c | 284.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 228$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 17c | 154.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 48c | 144.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 133$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 43c | 126.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 28c | 121.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 117.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 42c | 111.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 58c | 103.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 101.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 41c | 99.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 48c | 97.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 56c | 91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 56c | 84.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 32c | 82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 48c | 77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 26c | 75.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 26c | 75.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 75.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 51c | 73.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 57c | 71.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 69c | 69.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 38c | 69.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 69c | 68.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 57c | 68.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 57c | 68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 47c | 63.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…77dbbacked Yes | 42c | 60.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 60.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 68c | 58.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 48c | 55.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 62c | 52.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 52c | 51.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…41f7backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 37c | 48.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 43c | 48.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…aff8backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 59c | 47.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 41c | 46.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 61c | 45.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 44c | 42.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…145bbacked Yes | 61c | 41.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 31c | 40.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 62c | 39.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…1884backed No | 73c | 38.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 35c | 37.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 46c | 35.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…e97abacked No | 51c | 34.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 58c | 34.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 73c | 34.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 57c | 33.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 50c | 32.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 56c | 32.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 35c | 31.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed Yes | 40c | 30.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 46c | 29.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 46c | 29.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 42c | 29.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 47c | 28.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 37c | 27.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 53c | 25.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 50c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 50c | 24.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 44c | 23.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 47c | 23.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 66c | 22.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 56c | 21.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 54c | 21.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 55c | 20.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 50c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 55c | 19.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 74c | 14.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.