MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9275760b7558d082fce8662d06612491f20f9d1e167a37fd3981f3a4a88fc816
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 40c | 4,156$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.76 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…68b2backed No | 60c | 2,650$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 58c | 1,172$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.97 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 40c | 625.25$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 43c | 492.72$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.62 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…409bbacked Yes | 43c | 461$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Yes | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed No | 60c | 262.72$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.09 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 59c | 242$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.56 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5be…7019backed No | 61c | 198.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 42c | 168.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 779 | 52.1%406 W · 373 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 44c | 136.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed No | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 340 | 45%153 W · 187 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6c…a2c3backed No | 60c | 89.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 43c | 61.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 44c | 60.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…ca43backed No | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…1c6dbacked No | 60c | 31.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardiansthis page
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.