MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99c7ee56140ffe323a5a23742582cc07d513305dec7cd5a6b5d36585ea766fe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 44c | 7,500$3,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,315.07 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 56c | 3,005$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.2 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 2,556$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 2,348$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 56c | 2,023$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 54c | 1,867$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.68 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 41c | 1,066$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.83 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 1,051$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.78 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 900$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 47c | 859.41$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.82 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 595.52$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 55c | 550.56$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.85 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 70c | 393$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 55c | 271.76$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 256.9$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.16 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 59c | 255$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 162.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Under | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 55c | 65.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 55c | 65.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 55c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 59c | 43.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 55c | 38.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 56c | 37.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Over | 55c | 25.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 21.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 55c | 18.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 71c | 15.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.