MLB · resolved market

San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e9a83812c7d527869c929011657dac3c600151dac7d08c742b7f073049b3824

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $241,502
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $241,473

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,502 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under	53c	200,872$107,394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107,394.43	1,414	49.5%700 W · 714 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed Over	47c	100,000$47,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53,000	444	46.8%208 W · 236 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Over	46c	46,981$21,611 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25,369.64	883	49.3%435 W · 448 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Over	46c	29,888$13,748 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,139.52	736	50.7%373 W · 363 L	+10.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04e6…3914backed Under	69c	25,719$17,746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,746.12	97	66%64 W · 33 L	+4.9wins	+0.05per pick	61cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	31c	18,985$5,885 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,099.75	10,979	51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L	+139.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over	47c	7,000$3,260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,740	1,078	48.1%518 W · 560 L	-13.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Over	46c	3,913$1,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,113.05	399	53.6%214 W · 185 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Over	46c	3,913$1,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,113.05	390	51.5%201 W · 189 L	+7.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over	46c	2,449$1,128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,321.44	11,519	52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L	+213.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	33c	2,419$795 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,624.16	8,192	46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L	+38.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under	54c	1,657$895 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$894.88	366	48.9%179 W · 187 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over	54c	1,489$807 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$682.26	3,041	48%1,461 W · 1,580 L	-16.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over	46c	1,482$682 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$800.45	3,509	51%1,789 W · 1,720 L	+53.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Over	46c	1,298$597 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$701.17	575	51.7%297 W · 278 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	45c	1,266$574 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$691.52	6,999	50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over	45c	1,024$461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$563.2	2,311	51%1,179 W · 1,132 L	+25.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked Over	44c	1,007$443 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$563.92	477	45.7%218 W · 259 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	45c	825$374 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450.75	8,403	47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L	+76.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under	57c	666$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.62	577	53.2%307 W · 270 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Over	46c	597.76$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322.79	325	52.9%172 W · 153 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	33c	500$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	1,855	44%817 W · 1,038 L	-31.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over	46c	500$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270	1,845	50.7%936 W · 909 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over	46c	456$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.24	1,386	50.6%702 W · 684 L	-23.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb88…0e4cbacked Under	67c	447.76$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	110	64.5%71 W · 39 L	+7.7wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Over	47c	425.53$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.53	570	53.3%304 W · 266 L	+14.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over	44c	399$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.44	1,848	49.6%917 W · 931 L	+28.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over	47c	345.22$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.97	1,635	49.3%806 W · 829 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e7a…f252backed Over	44c	340.91$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$190.91	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.5wins	-0.19per pick	50cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Over	47c	335.95$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.05	281	54.4%153 W · 128 L	+9.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	45c	281.33$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.54	5,471	50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L	+21.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Over	45c	276$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.8	546	42.5%232 W · 314 L	+7.5wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under	57c	242.47$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.46	4,368	47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L	-79.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c2…d39ebacked Over	48c	208.33$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17d9…84afbacked Under	56c	206$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.36	103	45.6%47 W · 56 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Over	46c	192.87$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.15	235	48.9%115 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72f3…d396backed Over	44c	181.82$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.82	516	46.9%242 W · 274 L	-21.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Over	47c	177$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.81	455	45.7%208 W · 247 L	-11.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Over	46c	172$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.73	464	44.4%206 W · 258 L	-18.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over	44c	153.5$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.96	495	40.2%199 W · 296 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over	32c	152.69$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.83	1,797	50.4%906 W · 891 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8499…950dbacked Over	44c	147.73$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.73	104	46.2%48 W · 56 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over	43c	142.74$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.36	2,800	49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea53…e1ebbacked Under	60c	134.17$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over	46c	120$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.4	2,413	49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L	+22.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over	47c	117.04$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.03	3,841	42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Over	46c	116.5$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.91	192	48.4%93 W · 99 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…03acbacked Over	46c	111.37$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.14	76	51.3%39 W · 37 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bb8…7017backed Over	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	150	44.7%67 W · 83 L	-5.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked Over	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	151	47.7%72 W · 79 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b94…09dcbacked Over	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	114	41.2%47 W · 67 L	-8.3wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-14%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	318	44%140 W · 178 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Over	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	72	43.1%31 W · 41 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under	54c	91.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,212	50%606 W · 606 L	+5.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Under	21c	79.91$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.67	422	41%173 W · 249 L	-15.9wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bb3…b370backed Over	47c	77.1$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.86	197	56.3%111 W · 86 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43ed…6232backed Over	45c	77$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.35	182	44.5%81 W · 101 L	-14.3wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x089c…33dabacked Over	48c	75$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	68	52.9%36 W · 32 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x282b…cc76backed Over	45c	74.46$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.95	126	46.8%59 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Under	54c	74.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.17	328	46.6%153 W · 175 L	-13.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41ef…34cabacked Over	48c	70.81$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.82	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf7…c485backed Over	47c	70.21$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.21	63	42.9%27 W · 36 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	24c	70$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.57	5,812	43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L	-188.1wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Over	35c	66$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.9	290	43.1%125 W · 165 L	-12.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a4f…f773backed Over	47c	64.87$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.38	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3108…8a52backed Over	46c	53.87$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.87	50	54%27 W · 23 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd6…cfdebacked Over	45c	53.19$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.25	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-5.3wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xedab…8926backed Under	55c	49.98$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.49	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Under	56c	46.22$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.07	527	52.2%275 W · 252 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Over	45c	46$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.3	180	45.6%82 W · 98 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Over	44c	45.98$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.75	134	53.7%72 W · 62 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	46c	45.76$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.72	2,995	47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L	+12.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6240…54c0backed Under	30c	45$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Under	58c	44.71$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.74	1,176	43.8%515 W · 661 L	-33.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde36…f41cbacked Over	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	166	43.4%72 W · 94 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb59…6552backed Over	48c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.23	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f48…a145backed Over	45c	37.54$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.65	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe960…35bebacked Over	45c	34.62$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.04	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+122.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33c4…85c2backed Over	46c	32.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.61	62	59.7%37 W · 25 L	+5.6wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bbf…7ce5backed Over	46c	32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.44	123	40.7%50 W · 73 L	-6.5wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb445…e4a3backed Over	48c	31.25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.25	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	-5.2wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x829a…a748backed Under	54c	28.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.38	187	51.9%97 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x345c…b59dbacked Under	57c	26.31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	43	44.2%19 W · 24 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-17%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x434a…91cbbacked Over	46c	23.39$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.63	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9979…c5bdbacked Under	56c	23.3$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-32%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e4a…4efebacked Over	48c	21$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.92	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f53…d5abbacked Under	57c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansSan Diego Padres won
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 11.5Over won
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 12.5Under won
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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