Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9286baeded6b5418c70df0f7b069e69ad671b3b285cc79bc4138d2e48eff9061
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 484.46$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 317.07$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 315.9$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.6 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 280$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 76c | 274.14$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 256.08$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 254.61$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.69 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 43c | 251.58$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.81 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 245.97$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.08 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 244.88$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.46 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 13c | 228.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 48c | 228.1$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.13 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 37c | 205.51$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.47 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 198$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 181.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 52c | 176.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 167.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 56c | 142.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 47c | 131$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 48c | 115$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 107.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 105.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…52cbbacked Yes | 36c | 99.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 34c | 94.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 84.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 36c | 76.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 55c | 74.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 44c | 70.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 69.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 67.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 55c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 63.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 33c | 59.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 45c | 57.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…20bbbacked Yes | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 71c | 50.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 49.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 38c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 45c | 48.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 64c | 48.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf89…326dbacked No | 58c | 47.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 53c | 46.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 45.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 40.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…ab59backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 39.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 31c | 36.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 36.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 57c | 33.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 59c | 33.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 80c | 32.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 48c | 31.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked No | 54c | 29.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ad…dfbdbacked Yes | 44c | 27.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 45c | 27.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9b…3351backed Yes | 46c | 22.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…8099backed No | 59c | 21.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…700cbacked No | 54c | 20.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 50c | 20.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…970abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 54c | 19.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 64c | 18.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 17.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.