Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02e687d568cb8c921a55fdf1a674c218c60d98fad9332359f4532208b0346918
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 46c | 1,542$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.67 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 1,391$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.26 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 643$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 511$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 465.92$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.65 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 42c | 386.15$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.31 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 32c | 339.67$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 294.29$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 274.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.74 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 238.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.65 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 59c | 227.89$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.43 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 213.09$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 175.39$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 150.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…20bbbacked Yes | 50c | 149.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 148.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 52c | 148.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 146.16$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 43c | 137.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.85 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 127.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 48c | 127.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 123$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 27c | 120.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.41 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 60c | 111.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 41c | 104.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 44c | 103.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 70c | 100.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 22c | 96.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 50c | 95.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 90.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 41c | 90.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 63c | 85.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 83.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 81.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 17c | 77.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 74.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 69.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 30c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 47c | 60.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 41c | 58.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 58c | 56.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 54.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 53.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…f3e4backed No | 62c | 50.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 73c | 49.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 49c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 60c | 44.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 44.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…5bb2backed Yes | 63c | 44.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 68c | 43.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 60c | 40.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 39.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…dcfdbacked Yes | 44c | 39.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 49c | 38.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 38.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 54c | 37.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 36.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 55c | 35.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd7…19bfbacked No | 58c | 33.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb1…79f7backed No | 57c | 32.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 53c | 31.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 63c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…2dd7backed Yes | 51c | 30.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…e2e0backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 49c | 27.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…dbb2backed Yes | 44c | 26.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 46c | 25.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 24.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 23.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 51c | 23.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 59c | 20.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes | 59c | 20.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…8d97backed Yes | 75c | 17.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 72c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.