NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x928b2ebf845e20671d8ec6aa071a63d4f00ae17918cf85889eb9f5b094e980c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 55c | 3,367$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852.03 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 45c | 2,816$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 55c | 1,580$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.7 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 45c | 1,322$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.1 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 45c | 887$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.85 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 56c | 879.73$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.65 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 612.62$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.65 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 45c | 549.44$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.19 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 404.95$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.85 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 45c | 126.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 57c | 76.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 68.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Over | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 56c | 64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 46.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Under | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 45c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 40c | 26.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Over | 45c | 26.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afa…3dd1backed Under | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…93aebacked Under | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Panthers vs. LightningLightning won
- Panthers vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.