NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76f24799e334ec9d2851bea9781298db4daaa9243aac6dfb8f97b55d1f46df0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7d9…878fbacked Under | 43c | 24,600$10,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,578 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…9eb1backed Over | 57c | 24,600$14,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,578 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 45c | 7,223$3,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,239.91 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 5,616$2,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,621.19 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Over | 52c | 3,848$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.04 | 186 | 41.9%78 W · 108 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 3,720$2,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.33 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 54c | 2,447$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.23 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Over | 54c | 2,327$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.96 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 44c | 2,254$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.57 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…355abacked Over | 54c | 2,007$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 2,004$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.4 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 43c | 999.96$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.98 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed Under | 5c | 657.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 47c | 638.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.32 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 609$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.14 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 54c | 609$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.14 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 57c | 351.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.5 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 53c | 320.75$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 60c | 284.25$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 263.88$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 55c | 230$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.54 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9689…be06backed Under | 45c | 222.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 55c | 180$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x877a…7de2backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Under | 47c | 143.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…da93backed Under | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x960e…77d6backed Over | 53c | 110.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 96.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 46c | 88.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 49c | 88.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 44c | 81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 77.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 55c | 67.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 55c | 67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 31c | 55.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…93aebacked Under | 44c | 49.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…34c1backed Over | 59c | 47.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Over | 57c | 46.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 263 | 57.8%152 W · 111 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Under | 44c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 56c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 57c | 43.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8d…150bbacked Over | 54c | 36.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…7b48backed Over | 58c | 34.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…e4dabacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 48c | 34.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Over | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 43c | 27.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Over | 50c | 27.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92bc…6125backed Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…52c8backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Panthers vs. LightningLightning won
- Panthers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.