NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x971c12cf0339f13a87a0cd68cce0eba87c5deb7ae3eb4bdf0176916ffeac9624
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Panthers | 60c | 90,718$54,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,391.92 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Lightning | 40c | 66,995$26,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,197 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Lightning | 40c | 11,250$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,750 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Lightning | 40c | 5,675$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,405 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Lightning | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 227 | 47.6%108 W · 119 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning | 42c | 1,527$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Panthers | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.97 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Lightning | 40c | 1,132$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.06 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 46c | 1,107$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.97 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4e…c4a0backed Lightning | 42c | 913$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.54 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Lightning | 44c | 377.14$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.2 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Panthers | 58c | 331.59$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.8 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Panthers | 57c | 302.38$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.41 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lightning | 70c | 126.83$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ed…e29fbacked Lightning | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +12.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Lightning | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Lightning | 40c | 97.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Lightning | 40c | 95.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 162 | 54.9%89 W · 73 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Lightning | 42c | 66.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Panthers | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Lightning | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Lightning | 44c | 45.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Lightning | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Lightning | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +7.1wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lightning | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Lightning | 42c | 27.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Panthers | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Panthers | 60c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked Lightning | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Panthers vs. LightningLightning won
- Panthers vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.