Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Texas State Bobcats vs. Rice Owls
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92930094f231b3ea900f993f318f28dd978a750d8299477f9023287a413e2a35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rice Owlsof Texas State Bobcats, Rice Owls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas State Bobcats | 41c | 1,328$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.82 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…c9eebacked Rice Owls | 73c | 1,269$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.77 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Rice Owls | 58c | 1,236$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.93 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Texas State Bobcats | 3c | 1,205$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Rice Owls | 69c | 1,064$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.98 | 231 | 58.9%136 W · 95 L | +23.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Texas State Bobcats | 25c | 876.65$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.16 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Texas State Bobcats | 38c | 854.95$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.33 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Texas State Bobcats | 19c | 831$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.32 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rice Owls | 64c | 566.8$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.86 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Rice Owls | 62c | 522$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.56 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed Texas State Bobcats | 4c | 375.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…d649backed Texas State Bobcats | 19c | 365.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Rice Owls | 58c | 342.86$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Texas State Bobcats | 34c | 296$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Texas State Bobcats | 17c | 289.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Texas State Bobcats | 39c | 259.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54bf…0eb3backed Texas State Bobcats | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Texas State Bobcats | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Texas State Bobcats | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 294 | 44.6%131 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rice Owls | 59c | 188$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Texas State Bobcats | 43c | 186.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Texas State Bobcats | 39c | 170.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Texas State Bobcats | 10c | 125.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Texas State Bobcats | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Rice Owls | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 365 | 35.9%131 W · 234 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Rice Owls | 65c | 89.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Texas State Bobcats | 40c | 87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0341backed Rice Owls | 57c | 82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Texas State Bobcats | 29c | 70.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Rice Owls | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rice Owls | 57c | 61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe820…a857backed Texas State Bobcats | 31c | 58.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Texas State Bobcats | 43c | 51.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Texas State Bobcats | 43c | 49.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6053…adf5backed Texas State Bobcats | 44c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Texas State Bobcats | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1119…0256backed Texas State Bobcats | 42c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rice Owls | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.