MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92ab8f16a9ade8af8c8091463d3a06fc06591eae5227ef433e5c66a3865c8ed0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 52c | 4,693$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,252.57 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 2,383$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.44 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 47c | 1,936$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.11 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 53c | 1,870$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.85 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 28c | 1,093$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.55 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 1,050$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.29 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 838.39$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.04 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Over | 47c | 788.33$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.52 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 48c | 650.89$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.43 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 48c | 650.89$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.43 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 48c | 650.89$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.43 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 48c | 650.89$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.43 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 48c | 650.89$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.43 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Over | 47c | 507.46$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 48c | 504.58$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.2 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 66c | 460.6$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.36 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Over | 48c | 403.67$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.76 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a601backed Over | 48c | 302.75$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.32 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 277.28$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.1 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 46c | 247.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.69 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 53c | 216$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 52c | 195.53$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.74 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 52c | 153.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb743…c116backed Under | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…6399backed Under | 53c | 134.77$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 52c | 131.18$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 53c | 130.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Over | 48c | 127.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 76c | 127$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 47c | 120.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…c5afbacked Under | 50c | 116.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 47c | 102.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 49c | 95.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Under | 47c | 94.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 61c | 80.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 48c | 80.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…7042backed Over | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 55.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 48c | 54.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…2033backed Over | 48c | 54.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d6…09edbacked Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…acafbacked Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 48c | 49.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…5d91backed Under | 54c | 43.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 226 | 50.4%114 W · 112 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…b42dbacked Under | 57c | 43.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Under | 53c | 42.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Under | 53c | 37.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 48c | 36.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 53c | 35.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40f…f1aebacked Under | 53c | 35.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…ff82backed Over | 48c | 29.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 38c | 28.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 48c | 26.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Under | 53c | 25.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e1…da1ebacked Under | 53c | 25.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…ccc9backed Under | 53c | 25.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Over | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 64c | 23.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay RaysChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.