Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on December 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92b7176749626b7db76d884616e62b229182d9f334d9cdc0ff4047ac71d870d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed No | 63c | 1,169$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.26 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 6c | 964.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 73c | 647.59$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.21 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 4c | 607.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 54c | 304.52$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.37 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 45c | 279.19$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 70c | 276$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.55 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…89d2backed Yes | 48c | 206.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…13debacked Yes | 73c | 197.22$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 10c | 179.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.87 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 63c | 170.91$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed No | 53c | 160.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 34c | 147.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d6…f48bbacked Yes | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 20c | 127.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 124.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7729…4337backed No | 80c | 119.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…c739backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…0490backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -75%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf945…7eb1backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 50c | 98.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 96.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078d…7c44backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 44c | 90.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcea…18cbbacked Yes | 28c | 79.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970e…54e1backed Yes | 60c | 79.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 54c | 74.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 22c | 74.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed No | 36c | 69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 56c | 68.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 28c | 57.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c15…fdb1backed Yes | 47c | 45.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f93…02c8backed No | 56c | 45.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…8078backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0783…5d03backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…8e69backed Yes | 50c | 29.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…465fbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bc…fd0abacked No | 77c | 13.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on December 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on December 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on December 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or higher on December 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.