South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92e854fafa965728f37e51249170e51a30e2f90eb4090c8774d5a31be7040e35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Yes | 55c | 20,177$11,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,077.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 45c | 20,000$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 34c | 2,363$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.03 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 14c | 1,894$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.58 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 10c | 1,181$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.14 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f1…2638backed No | 41c | 1,061$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 59c | 731.85$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.06 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Yes | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 6c | 485$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 55c | 480.1$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.37 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 46c | 466.89$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.89 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 68c | 445.47$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.66 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes | 55c | 363.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed No | 45c | 330.62$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.78 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…42e0backed Yes | 56c | 315.18$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 20c | 227.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed No | 22c | 215$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f20…87c9backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 78c | 190.31$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 56c | 134$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 54c | 115$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…b6bbbacked Yes | 58c | 98.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…b378backed Yes | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 33c | 76.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 44c | 58.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Yes | 57c | 52.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked No | 42c | 49.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 46c | 42.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf813…c007backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7e…da31backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce04…9496backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…cd55backed Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked No | 42c | 25.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa741…bd1fbacked Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 44c | 23.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c3…3c3fbacked Yes | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ac…da2ebacked Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will SC Recife vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Recife win on 2025-12-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.