Dota2 · resolved market
PARIVISION to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92ede73492c361937507ada6c869278e5355bf93e505a7397539e230af210954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe548…a9febacked No | 23c | 1,817$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.42 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 77c | 1,393$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.18 | 239 | 36.4%87 W · 152 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…c244backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 295 | 46.1%136 W · 159 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…4ecbbacked Yes | 75c | 936$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.76 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked Yes | 70c | 630.71$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.21 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 23c | 518.02$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.99 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Yes | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c72…7e7ebacked No | 27c | 465$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.32 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Yes | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Yes | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 29c | 378.5$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.83 | 1,823 | 45.1%822 W · 1,001 L | +34.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 372.45$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 24c | 350$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 30c | 303.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 22c | 293.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 29c | 216.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…57b5backed Yes | 76c | 199.96$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 348 | 60.1%209 W · 139 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 23c | 122.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 20c | 94.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 14c | 78.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 14c | 78.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 209 | 63.2%132 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed No | 18c | 64.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 190 | 31.6%60 W · 130 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…87f6backed No | 23c | 57.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes | 77c | 53.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed Yes | 76c | 39.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 154 | 65.6%101 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfc…521fbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…b6d5backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4802…c8e1backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 180 | 63.9%115 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 75c | 22.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6e…3288backed Yes | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked Yes | 71c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 454 | 70.7%321 W · 133 L | +26.7wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PARIVISION to win 2-0?this page
- Team Nemesis to win 2-0?No won
- Team Nemesis vs PARIVISION: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.