Other European Leagues · resolved market
Kayserispor vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92f32cce7ac66cb54d16c4f97cea7f401222ac91bd6cb58cfee7d90b14336e0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $613,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $613,827 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 39c | 118,502$45,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,534.7 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 60c | 34,972$21,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,130.05 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 63c | 15,874$9,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,939.11 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 15,518$9,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,482.17 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 60c | 13,379$8,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,010.57 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 12,137$7,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,361.46 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1501…525ebacked Under | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 61c | 5,057$3,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,084.59 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 64c | 4,245$2,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,696.21 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Under | 65c | 3,557$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 61c | 1,331$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.32 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Under | 31c | 1,260$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.33 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…820fbacked Under | 69c | 1,220$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 35c | 1,087$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.62 | 124 | 26.6%33 W · 91 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Under | 67c | 1,000$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Under | 66c | 932.67$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.56 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…c561backed Over | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 65c | 787.74$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.37 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…7a18backed Over | 22c | 700$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 43c | 642.21$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.72 | 648 | 42%272 W · 376 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 80c | 487.5$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…8e52backed Under | 41c | 487.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e3…a8cabacked Under | 65c | 485.9$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 61c | 430$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.3 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 61c | 366.19$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.04 | 125 | 64%80 W · 45 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 62c | 217.9$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 206 | 32%66 W · 140 L | -17.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 65c | 193.03$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.78 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 64c | 181.73$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.97 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +9.4wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 59c | 180$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 72c | 166.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 478 | 42.9%205 W · 273 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…bdc2backed Under | 67c | 156.72$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a0…ba20backed Under | 20c | 151.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 63c | 138.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 278 | 56.1%156 W · 122 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Under | 63c | 136.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 40c | 131.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…6562backed Under | 27c | 127.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 68c | 125.84$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 74c | 125.46$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 191 | 65.4%125 W · 66 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 68c | 124.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 38c | 101.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 66c | 99.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 283 | 49.1%139 W · 144 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 43c | 92.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 58c | 73.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 188 | 48.4%91 W · 97 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5046…7676backed Under | 64c | 71.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Under | 60c | 68.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 60c | 56.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5142…ee20backed Under | 50c | 54.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 74c | 53.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a4…c55fbacked Over | 56c | 53.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2135…9e8fbacked Under | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Over | 31c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Under | 56c | 44.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 37c | 40.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf054…d148backed Under | 66c | 39.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 66c | 39.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 63c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 64c | 34.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +10.0wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 63c | 34.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 41c | 33.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 64c | 24.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…1b45backed Under | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Under | 62c | 23.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 61c | 23.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…d203backed Under | 75c | 22.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 68c | 18.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed Under | 64c | 18.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5f…4703backed Under | 68c | 18.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…84f5backed Under | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…bf13backed Under | 71c | 15.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kayserispor vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 3.5this page
- Kayserispor vs. Trabzonspor: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kayserispor vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kayserispor vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kayserispor vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Kayserispor (-1.5)Trabzonspor won
- Spread: Trabzonspor (-1.5)Trabzonspor won
- Spread: Trabzonspor (-2.5)Kayserispor won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.