MLB · resolved market
Rangers vs. Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92f528b30c377e31b5bc4d6dcf4cd8925155542d9ac4b6714271af3e4ebc6635
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Soxof Rangers, Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Red Sox | 57c | 7,251$4,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,115.39 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Rangers | 43c | 4,000$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Rangers | 45c | 2,889$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.13 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Red Sox | 56c | 2,425$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.33 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Rangers | 41c | 1,585$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rangers | 42c | 1,434$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.28 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Rangers | 43c | 1,319$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.71 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Rangers | 32c | 1,059$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.51 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Red Sox | 59c | 999.99$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Red Sox | 56c | 886.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.44 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Rangers | 41c | 690$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.26 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Rangers | 6c | 640$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rangers | 41c | 570.54$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Rangers | 43c | 526.06$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.21 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Rangers | 41c | 493.99$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.54 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Red Sox | 60c | 491.67$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.67 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Rangers | 42c | 443.39$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.23 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Rangers | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Red Sox | 61c | 356.49$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.61 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Rangers | 40c | 348$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Red Sox | 55c | 306.67$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Rangers | 6c | 294.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Rangers | 36c | 280.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Rangers | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Rangers | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Red Sox | 57c | 205.2$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.24 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Red Sox | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Red Sox | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Rangers | 40c | 160.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Rangers | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Red Sox | 58c | 121.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5efc…ee80backed Rangers | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Rangers | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Rangers | 40c | 87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Red Sox | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Red Sox | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Rangers | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Red Sox | 57c | 41.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Rangers | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Red Sox | 56c | 33.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Red Sox | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Rangers | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Red Sox | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Red Sox | 71c | 19.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Red Sox | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.