Earnings · resolved market
Will Nvidia say "Gaming" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9307b13d732185ca9bc037468a5f69eff5a48e83f3e1d1214bc8f47de3fd1400
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 30c | 963.87$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.51 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.35per pick | 57cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 28c | 319$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.36 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7460…31e8backed Yes | 71c | 282.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 72c | 200.1$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.79 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e60…dd19backed Yes | 70c | 200$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 77c | 196.04$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 74c | 179$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…c2e6backed No | 19c | 127.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.09 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…63d9backed No | 29c | 109.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.48 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 684 | 43%294 W · 390 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed Yes | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5552…6f16backed Yes | 53c | 86.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…59a5backed No | 24c | 58.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 57.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 589 | 38.9%229 W · 360 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…ea65backed No | 34c | 50.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 64c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 71c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 74c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc0…bc0dbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed Yes | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nvidia say "Gaming" during earnings call?this page
- Will Nvidia say "AI" 20+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nvidia say "Automation" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nvidia say "China" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nvidia say "Cosmos" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nvidia say "Dividend" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nvidia say "Domestic" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nvidia say "Enterprise" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nvidia say "Taiwan" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Nvidia say "Talent" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nvidia say "Tariff" during earnings call?No won
- Will Nvidia say "Token" 10+ times during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.