Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x931ffdf735d06b15aaa6f51a83ba8491be92f01b0fab3bf0b7cbd2e465531d67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 47c | 3,575$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,910.16 | 464 | 54.3%252 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Yes | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…77c9backed Yes | 58c | 968.62$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968a…6842backed Yes | 58c | 868.92$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 43c | 864$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.1 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 58c | 827.34$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.86 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 42c | 696$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.68 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 3c | 555$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 24c | 400$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0d…5de2backed Yes | 57c | 392.98$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 41c | 262.71$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 50c | 261.84$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.92 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…3f0abacked Yes | 58c | 194.17$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…71fdbacked Yes | 50c | 191.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…0238backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 24c | 175$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…b3a4backed Yes | 59c | 160.58$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed No | 42c | 141.87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…37fabacked Yes | 56c | 113.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 44c | 112.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 43c | 94.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…c62dbacked Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…be8bbacked Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…2276backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…d0e3backed Yes | 57c | 42.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 61c | 42.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…05c1backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…ec38backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…f9e9backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…1778backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 53c | 28.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Sparta Rotterdam vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.