South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: SE Palmeiras O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93525470cff2bad8f6e892ef22fa4c2e403e4afec1c4dd1862ff43d1a98b9d5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Over | 44c | 1,406$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.72 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.1wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 55c | 691.32$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.79 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 55c | 422.63$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.18 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 56c | 276.97$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.87 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Under | 49c | 102.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319f…500bbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 57c | 75.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb2…b26cbacked Over | 43c | 74.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 57c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 57c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Over | 34c | 71.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 67.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…f406backed Over | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 69c | 30.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Under | 70c | 29.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: SE Palmeiras O/U 1.5this page
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.