South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b8b4cc5e6c0da43170b64765c624686cceb6809d689fcc13b3164ffae785d98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 36c | 14,000$5,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,039.9 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 9,690$7,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,548.11 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 29c | 3,238$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.88 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Over | 9c | 3,201$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.39 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 2,605$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.7 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 2,274$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.46 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 64c | 1,067$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.92 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 26c | 382.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 65c | 358$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.98 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cf…2224backed Under | 64c | 314.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.06 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 36c | 228.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 70c | 196.26$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 70c | 189.8$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…47e6backed Over | 11c | 181.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 76c | 175.81$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 71c | 174$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 38c | 137.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 64c | 127.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 264 | 65.9%174 W · 90 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 14c | 125.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 122.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Under | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 115.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 65c | 112.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed Over | 37c | 106.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f4…d4b0backed Under | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…1e72backed Over | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…502ebacked Over | 38c | 95.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 14c | 92.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Under | 77c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea6…eaaebacked Over | 33c | 75.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 71c | 70.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 20c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Under | 68c | 62.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 65c | 61.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0b…5efdbacked Over | 21c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…6d91backed Over | 23c | 47.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a6…c03bbacked Under | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 61c | 44.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 76c | 37.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…2f76backed Over | 39c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 62c | 36.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…60e4backed Under | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…96d8backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…736ebacked Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 62c | 26.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910e…3ae0backed Under | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 72c | 20.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 65c | 20.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2130…ffb2backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Under | 64c | 19.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…6471backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5this page
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: SE Palmeiras O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.