South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c0c247c92cd913d4b227b68e4069c3931bf30acfce2d8bc6657c18a3729136d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Club Cerro Porteñoof SE Palmeiras, Club Cerro Porteño
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed SE Palmeiras | 32c | 15,625$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.98 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Club Cerro Porteño | 68c | 14,776$9,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,777.51 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…f406backed SE Palmeiras | 27c | 2,875$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed SE Palmeiras | 26c | 1,348$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.1wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe23c…5ae7backed SE Palmeiras | 45c | 1,181$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.45 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Club Cerro Porteño | 73c | 1,098$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.52 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 74c | 725.57$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked SE Palmeiras | 24c | 499.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 123 | 38.2%47 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Club Cerro Porteño | 68c | 434$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.88 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Club Cerro Porteño | 68c | 335.69$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Club Cerro Porteño | 68c | 309.51$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.77 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…a604backed SE Palmeiras | 33c | 308.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.87 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Club Cerro Porteño | 73c | 256$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Club Cerro Porteño | 68c | 246.73$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.62 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Club Cerro Porteño | 75c | 230.43$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed SE Palmeiras | 24c | 199.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Club Cerro Porteño | 68c | 199.79$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Club Cerro Porteño | 71c | 183.26$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Club Cerro Porteño | 73c | 180.46$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked SE Palmeiras | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 73c | 171$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed SE Palmeiras | 24c | 141.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Club Cerro Porteño | 73c | 136.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Club Cerro Porteño | 75c | 136.04$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Club Cerro Porteño | 69c | 134.61$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Club Cerro Porteño | 76c | 132.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…d8abbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 75c | 128$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 179 | 51.4%92 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Club Cerro Porteño | 76c | 102.75$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 167 | 51.5%86 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Club Cerro Porteño | 52c | 102$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +11.9wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed SE Palmeiras | 22c | 100.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac6…6cf8backed SE Palmeiras | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked SE Palmeiras | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 129 | 33.3%43 W · 86 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 71c | 93.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked SE Palmeiras | 26c | 85.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…2e87backed SE Palmeiras | 30c | 83.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked SE Palmeiras | 37c | 80.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed SE Palmeiras | 25c | 76.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed SE Palmeiras | 33c | 72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed SE Palmeiras | 33c | 68.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d12ebacked SE Palmeiras | 33c | 67.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed SE Palmeiras | 24c | 63.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 248 | 55.2%137 W · 111 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed SE Palmeiras | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed SE Palmeiras | 25c | 49.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Club Cerro Porteño | 71c | 45.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Club Cerro Porteño | 74c | 36.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Club Cerro Porteño | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Club Cerro Porteño | 78c | 27.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Club Cerro Porteño | 74c | 21.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…6f23backed Club Cerro Porteño | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361b…74febacked Club Cerro Porteño | 76c | 18.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Club Cerro Porteño | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 71c | 16.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Club Cerro Porteño | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)this page
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: SE Palmeiras O/U 1.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.