South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b41cff27d3fb790dc0bcc4042c3c76a7ba15ce3e96461500cb7bce1a763062a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x583e…a2a6backed No | 57c | 3,594$2,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 38c | 1,573$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.95 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 1,317$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.53 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 671.84$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.61 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 56c | 646.12$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.29 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed No | 58c | 612.94$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.89 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Yes | 34c | 571.05$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.07 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 58c | 520.01$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 38c | 236.75$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 129 | 33.3%43 W · 86 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 37c | 176.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 58c | 129.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 11c | 128.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 36c | 110.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…398abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…f9e0backed Yes | 43c | 66.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Yes | 43c | 62.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed No | 64c | 57.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 73c | 51.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 64c | 33.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…2f76backed Yes | 44c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed No | 61c | 25.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6618…3733backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 259 | 55.2%143 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 0.5Over won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5Under won
- Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras: SE Palmeiras O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)Club Cerro Porteño won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.