Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: AZ (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9355e15cc9e6caa09d802963a7bb0259489c1e6bce94a524a529ed4ff5ac5f25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AC Sparta Prahaof AZ, AC Sparta Praha
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,087 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AC Sparta Praha | 74c | 2,239$1,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.22 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked AZ | 29c | 861.03$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.74 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…93acbacked AZ | 29c | 600$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed AZ | 32c | 471.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AZ | 12c | 463.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked AC Sparta Praha | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed AC Sparta Praha | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked AZ | 45c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked AZ | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked AC Sparta Praha | 70c | 39.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed AC Sparta Praha | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed AC Sparta Praha | 71c | 33.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked AZ | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed AC Sparta Praha | 78c | 27.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed AC Sparta Praha | 72c | 17.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed AC Sparta Praha | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed AC Sparta Praha | 75c | 16.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AZ (-1.5)this page
- AZ vs. AC Sparta Praha: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AZ vs. AC Sparta Praha: O/U 1.5Over won
- AZ vs. AC Sparta Praha: O/U 2.5Over won
- AZ vs. AC Sparta Praha: O/U 3.5Under won
- AZ vs. AC Sparta Praha: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AC Sparta Praha (-1.5)AZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.