Europa Conference League · resolved market
AZ vs. AC Sparta Praha: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc2e07128f6346b35d6ff56a8cc3b2c8e9cd1094c69979d4aafe8e15f334587b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,256 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2fb…b9f0backed Over | 79c | 4,216$3,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 3,340$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.68 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 22c | 2,542$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.36 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 70c | 1,428$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 23c | 1,103$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.89 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 21c | 991.11$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.32 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 24c | 925.04$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.01 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 75c | 819.4$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.87 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…5331backed Over | 79c | 633.91$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.76 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1129…9d35backed Over | 73c | 258$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…f106backed Under | 27c | 258$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 23c | 202.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Under | 22c | 184.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…0a7fbacked Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 23c | 124.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked Under | 24c | 94.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…6714backed Over | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…bf04backed Over | 78c | 46.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Over | 78c | 42.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Over | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 75c | 37.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Over | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2f…a3d8backed Under | 33c | 32.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…fe2abacked Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 67c | 14.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AZ vs. AC Sparta Praha: O/U 1.5this page
- AZ vs. AC Sparta Praha: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AZ vs. AC Sparta Praha: O/U 2.5Over won
- AZ vs. AC Sparta Praha: O/U 3.5Under won
- AZ vs. AC Sparta Praha: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AC Sparta Praha (-1.5)AZ won
- Spread: AZ (-1.5)AC Sparta Praha won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.