Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x936732370df9a785d1cd986e60ab25ddd347c7851508569cb205fe32cf52cc07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x186c…f982backed Yes | 75c | 1,619$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.21 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,312$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.32 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…8109backed Yes | 5c | 854.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 317 | 2.5%8 W · 309 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4269…e056backed No | 77c | 824.74$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.74 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 7c | 620.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 6c | 618.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 16c | 615$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.76 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 531.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 24c | 500.1$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 497.74$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2e…716bbacked Yes | 39c | 448.22$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 300.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 5c | 296.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 221.37$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 6c | 205.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 43c | 166$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 25c | 163.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 13c | 159.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 9c | 116.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 39c | 114$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 12c | 108.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 93.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 68.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd090…3bc5backed Yes | 33c | 60.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 17c | 58.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 54.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 32c | 51.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 38c | 45.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 47c | 32.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 78c | 32.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 54c | 30.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 26.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.