Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8462854073694b2beaa186fc1c83f0fda21586d07ee5d89825d61c7b2f274e21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x953f…7518backed No | 61c | 801.31$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.58 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 3c | 633.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 37c | 599.31$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.22 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 40c | 579.03$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.21 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ee48backed Yes | 34c | 299.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 291.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 244.32$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 226.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 225.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 39c | 206.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.07 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 35c | 183.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 38c | 178$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 13c | 177.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 176$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 169.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 154.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 136.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 38c | 133.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 130.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 122.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 115$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 114.48$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 109.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 105.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 38c | 102.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Yes | 41c | 101$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 37c | 100.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 39c | 100.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 35c | 97.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 64c | 86.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 31c | 83.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 63c | 73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 65.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 34c | 64.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 64.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 63.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 59.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 74c | 57.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 68c | 56.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 38c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 54.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x947a…cd42backed No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…c2f0backed No | 80c | 48.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 45.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 45.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 26c | 43.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 42.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 64c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 40c | 39.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 66c | 37.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea8…e04bbacked Yes | 39c | 33.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd007…8eedbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 32.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 73c | 31.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 65c | 31.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2119…1e8fbacked No | 72c | 30.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 61c | 29.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…769cbacked No | 67c | 29.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 38c | 29.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d4…5ba7backed No | 66c | 27.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 66c | 25.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed No | 71c | 22.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…0f89backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked No | 69c | 19.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 14.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.