TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,760
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,871

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,760 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x953f…7518backed No61c801.31$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.583745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa595…cdf1backed Yes3c633.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1915561.9%96 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes37c599.31$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.2231043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes40c579.03$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.2112540%50 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x952d…ee48backed Yes34c299.97$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.991118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes22c291.17$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.651,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No63c250$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.54,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No61c244.32$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.634,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes32c226.73$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes14c225.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.063,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes39c206.29$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0745130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa94…3601backed Yes35c183.01$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.825125.5%13 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes38c178$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6491444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes13c177.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2315131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c176$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.934,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c169.4$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.145,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No64c154.32$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.851,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5777851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes37c136.58$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.645,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes38c133.44$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7123429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c130.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.257,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c122.72$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No64c115$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.515,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c114.48$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.669,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No62c109.75$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.259,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No62c105.39$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.086,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked Yes38c102.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7815044.7%67 W · 83 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc45a…1565backed Yes41c101$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.972114.3%3 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-61.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes37c100.33$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.561,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes39c100.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.886420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.940025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes35c97.23$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.632,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No64c86.93$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.551,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes31c83.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3665934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes35c80$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0560739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No62c75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.53,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No63c73$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0180957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c65.39$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.954,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc67e…8929backed Yes37c65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.754129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes34c64.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.19832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No72c64.01$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.192,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c63.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.47,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No69c59.65$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.672,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No74c57.9$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3319648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No68c56.43$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes38c56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.283,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes31c54.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.523677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.51,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No59c49.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.588650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x947a…cd42backed No62c48.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.392254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+10.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3642…c2f0backed No80c48.38$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.79966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No66c45.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4697570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No68c45.3$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.391,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes26c43.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.313738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No72c42.54$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bc…c1b8backed No64c41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.766061.7%37 W · 23 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8664333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No67c39.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.22,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed Yes40c39.12$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6513551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No64c38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6871464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No66c37.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8725358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No61c37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.412,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes36c35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.612747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea8…e04bbacked Yes39c33.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.32933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.534,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd007…8eedbacked No61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.79560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No69c32.01$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.922,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes36c32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5259125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No66c32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.882,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No73c31.14$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4842160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No65c31.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9983459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2119…1e8fbacked No72c30.44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.52560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.31,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.217144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x177b…6e61backed Yes35c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4412458.1%72 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.41,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6647538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No61c29.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.421,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeedf…769cbacked No67c29.27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.741145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes38c29.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0613838.4%53 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No63c29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.843,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d4…5ba7backed No66c27.54$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.34977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No66c25.71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7462770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9541…33b5backed No71c22.61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.566269.4%43 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.917744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe950…0f89backed No76c19.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.742871.4%20 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick76cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc54…db0ebacked No69c19.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No69c14.94$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6665965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No73c14.1$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No73c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.782,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.