Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f5a931e1dfe56433dc174fc5465fcaece9ccbcd4570fc97d608b93ebfa15855
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 57c | 841.95$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.96 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 60c | 694.99$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.1 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 427.37$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 57c | 415.24$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.65 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2e…716bbacked Yes | 61c | 336$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 60c | 300$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.31 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 69c | 246.79$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 230.13$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 11c | 196.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 190.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 183.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 47c | 170.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 65c | 166.34$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.87 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 76c | 166.28$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 43c | 164.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 159.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 40c | 154.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 154.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed Yes | 60c | 150.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 44c | 149.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 41c | 146.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 54c | 130.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 9c | 128.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 124.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 44c | 112.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 45c | 111.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 64c | 109.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 101.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2119…1e8fbacked Yes | 69c | 99.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 43c | 93.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 61c | 85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 44c | 76.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 59c | 76.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 73.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 35c | 73.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 47c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 33c | 62.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 58c | 61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 50c | 59.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 36c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 52.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b38…7ba3backed No | 48c | 51.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c2…d7a3backed Yes | 72c | 50.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed No | 43c | 46.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 39c | 46.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 62c | 46.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 65c | 45.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 56c | 45.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 59c | 42.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 59c | 42.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 44c | 42.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed No | 60c | 42.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43bc…fcdfbacked Yes | 71c | 41.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 39c | 40.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 58c | 37.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 40c | 37.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed No | 40c | 37.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 58c | 34.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…03b5backed Yes | 49c | 32.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 31.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 44c | 31.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 60c | 31.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 46c | 30.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 61c | 30.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 61c | 29.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 52c | 28.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 41c | 25.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e5…a25ebacked Yes | 39c | 25.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 25.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 58c | 22.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 52c | 21.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 54c | 19.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.