Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x936c9ffae0b903d478c8816d58e3b69f23b45e8a5961fa06872514405e276485
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 2,655$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,328.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 10c | 2,089$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,887.64 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 1,824$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,685.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0462…8374backed No | 1c | 1,735$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 3c | 1,047$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed7…9117backed Yes | 25c | 837.2$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 684.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.58 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 611.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 530.27$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.01 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 3c | 523.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 216.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 214.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 189.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed Yes | 33c | 188.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…93e0backed Yes | 18c | 171.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.06 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…c69cbacked No | 17c | 153.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 144$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 72c | 108.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…46bebacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 86.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed Yes | 16c | 75.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 12cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…0c8bbacked Yes | 41c | 71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 64c | 70.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 79c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 56c | 64.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 46c | 53.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 51.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 20c | 51.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3466…ff2fbacked No | 43c | 36.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 70c | 15.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.