Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc5781862442319d23645ec8ed50205e3a4d8fbdaed6f2b0e8c846d653b7527d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 11c | 2,434$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.81 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 27c | 343.56$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 330$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 317$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 71c | 209.21$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 134.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 27c | 125.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 15c | 122$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 115.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 108.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 86.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 68.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 62.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 25c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 29c | 48.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 44.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…70a3backed Yes | 24c | 41.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…b673backed No | 73c | 36.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…71b4backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 23.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed No | 69c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 70c | 14.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.