Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6faa0902370f07ea1b5a0d2d393d4a60c46c0f375dd242b5204f8a2e8dc1913a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 6c | 1,057$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 3c | 860.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 21c | 669.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.16 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 27c | 368.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 4c | 262.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 225$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 210$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 7c | 191$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 177.33$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 19c | 159.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 79c | 106.73$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 18c | 93.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 29c | 87.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 24c | 62.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 59.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 54.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xce17…e192backed Yes | 24c | 52.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 43.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 74c | 30.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 78c | 24.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 23.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 19.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 75c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 18.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.