TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Roar Gaming (BO1) - ACL X ESL Challenger China Playoffs

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Roar Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,530
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,960

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,530 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Roar Gaming15c4,347$650 inLost-$6501,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Roar Gaming13c2,878$375 inLost-$375.4288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Roar Gaming12c2,479$290 inLost-$289.551,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Roar Gaming14c2,414$348 inLost-$348.3254246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Roar Gaming22c2,221$498 inLost-$497.9837945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Roar Gaming9c1,500$135 inLost-$13560251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed Roar Gaming12c1,362$169 inLost-$169.512350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Roar Gaming15c1,220$189 inLost-$189.091,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef27…381bbacked Roar Gaming20c1,019$200 inLost-$2003154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Roar Gaming49c1,000$490 inLost-$489.8537655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Roar Gaming16c999.99$163 inLost-$16323650.4%119 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Xtreme Gaming69c952.8$657 inWon+$295.94951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Roar Gaming15c830.82$125 inLost-$124.6222363.2%141 W · 82 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Roar Gaming15c677.36$100 inLost-$10029160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Roar Gaming15c561.84$82 inLost-$82.152817.9%5 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-61.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Roar Gaming16c529.85$82 inLost-$82.182,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Roar Gaming11c523.74$58 inLost-$57.6116842.9%72 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Roar Gaming22c499.98$110 inLost-$1103663.9%23 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Roar Gaming12c479.42$59 inLost-$59.021,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed Roar Gaming10c407.9$41 inLost-$40.796058.3%35 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Xtreme Gaming68c399.42$273 inWon+$126.7154058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed Xtreme Gaming79c399.41$314 inWon+$85.7134561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed Xtreme Gaming75c342.66$257 inWon+$85.6613645.6%62 W · 74 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Roar Gaming15c330.42$49 inLost-$49.312,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Roar Gaming13c313.08$41 inLost-$40.610961.5%67 W · 42 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Roar Gaming19c231.08$44 inLost-$43.919644.8%43 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Roar Gaming15c226.16$33 inLost-$33.081,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Roar Gaming10c192$19 inLost-$19.273743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Roar Gaming13c186.44$25 inLost-$24.967043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…0a76backed Roar Gaming30c162.34$48 inLost-$48.1950%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked Roar Gaming11c155.43$18 inLost-$17.8256343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Xtreme Gaming75c150$113 inWon+$37.524138.6%93 W · 148 L-18.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce7a…fef0backed Roar Gaming18c139.67$25 inLost-$2519145.5%87 W · 104 L+13.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb278…3ba6backed Roar Gaming18c139.55$26 inLost-$25.791520%3 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-60.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfff2…3f58backed Roar Gaming11c136.35$15 inLost-$152227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Roar Gaming10c111.11$11 inLost-$11.111457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Roar Gaming13c109.99$14 inLost-$14.2553634%182 W · 354 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Roar Gaming10c107.14$11 inLost-$10.7132951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Roar Gaming22c105.74$23 inLost-$2351550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Roar Gaming14c100.36$14 inLost-$1441037.3%153 W · 257 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b37…17bdbacked Roar Gaming10c100$10 inLost-$106434.4%22 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe647…2040backed Roar Gaming23c92.19$22 inLost-$21.542653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x730e…fca0backed Xtreme Gaming78c90.7$71 inWon+$20.1820535.1%72 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac9c…c08cbacked Xtreme Gaming78c38.46$30 inWon+$8.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Xtreme Gaming73c38$28 inWon+$10.2669033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ada…c921backed Xtreme Gaming73c30$22 inWon+$8.1633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Xtreme Gaming73c28$20 inWon+$7.5635032.3%113 W · 237 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Xtreme Gaming73c28$20 inWon+$7.5615536.1%56 W · 99 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Xtreme Gaming73c28$20 inWon+$7.5616837.5%63 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Xtreme Gaming73c25$18 inWon+$6.7536044.2%159 W · 201 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4350…4bbabacked Xtreme Gaming77c19.46$15 inWon+$4.483366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3da9…010ebacked Xtreme Gaming79c13$10 inWon+$2.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc084…433bbacked Xtreme Gaming80c12.5$10 inWon+$2.5366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.