Asian League · resolved market
Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93b0d3a1a65988742c9fe8b7dfce36cc5128a4020868660255f5b187625145be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 44c | 1,036$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.08 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 13c | 1,014$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.73 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x851c…dafdbacked Yes | 72c | 828.56$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 30c | 681.46$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.99 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 21c | 536.72$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.68 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 65c | 501.66$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.96 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 6c | 432.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 26c | 424.69$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 13c | 304$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.91 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 217.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.02 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 7c | 217$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 30c | 187.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 62c | 172.11$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Yes | 17c | 116$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked No | 18c | 111.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 37c | 97.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 18c | 83.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…cbd4backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 41c | 73.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 20c | 68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed No | 18c | 55.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 53.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…dc4fbacked Yes | 65c | 46.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5495…fc8cbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f80…8587backed Yes | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…7095backed Yes | 74c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…8973backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 74c | 15.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-29?No won
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.