Asian League · resolved market
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc05adea6909739f936d5a7423e584e2588f9f256a965397aeda04638cd83b1e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 73c | 8,502$6,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,246.32 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…4f8abacked No | 23c | 7,293$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,625.23 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 34c | 1,020$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.86 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked No | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 19c | 899.84$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.8 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 4c | 536.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Yes | 19c | 457.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 56c | 454.29$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.4 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed No | 20c | 436.24$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.52 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 38c | 391.25$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.14 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 22c | 299.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.65 | 1,035 | 41.6%431 W · 604 L | -33.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 35c | 263.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.45 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 23c | 168.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.89 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 21c | 146.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 80c | 141.39$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 729 | 44.2%322 W · 407 L | -29.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 37c | 130.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 80c | 127.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 237 | 55.3%131 W · 106 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 25c | 89.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Yes | 66c | 72.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 29c | 70.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed5…ee3cbacked Yes | 79c | 69.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 30c | 66.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…924ebacked Yes | 80c | 62.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb792…fa38backed No | 71c | 54.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Yes | 36c | 51.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a4…31eebacked Yes | 39c | 51.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57b…c48fbacked Yes | 80c | 46.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 44c | 44.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5495…fc8cbacked Yes | 79c | 44.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 76c | 42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 282 | 47.9%135 W · 147 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9695…0437backed Yes | 32c | 31.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 65c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5da7…f499backed Yes | 79c | 30.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 71c | 29.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 51c | 29.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…4bbabacked No | 43c | 26.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…14b2backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -6.7wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 43c | 26.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x020e…69c1backed Yes | 59c | 20.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x637f…e492backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bf2bbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-29?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.