South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Mazatlán FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93c7b11d34ba7b592424736be796bcfff902676ff112d69fb23650fc4aa6f509
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Yes | 19c | 2,311$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.67 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 20c | 390.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 17c | 382.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Yes | 15c | 307.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 307.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 19c | 225.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 62c | 204.57$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.22 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 25c | 196.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 71c | 186.44$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.77 | 120 | 65%78 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 77c | 185.11$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 200 | 22.5%45 W · 155 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 61c | 161.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 19c | 150.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 17c | 138.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 23c | 124.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 77c | 110.56$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked No | 43c | 106.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 19c | 101.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 18c | 100.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed No | 36c | 86.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | +13.3wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 54c | 79.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 49c | 70.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb969…b985backed Yes | 15c | 68.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +48%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60e7…3f3fbacked Yes | 49c | 67.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 72c | 65.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Yes | 19c | 61.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…13eebacked Yes | 20c | 52.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 36c | 51.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 21c | 47.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 44c | 38.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 62c | 29.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 74c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked No | 79c | 20.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Yes | 75c | 15.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Yes | 75c | 15.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mazatlán FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-04-22?No won
- Will Mazatlán FC win on 2026-04-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.